November's Commissioner Race

Five Candidates Have Filed So Far To Serve The Remainder Of Doug Robertson's Term

     This has been a surprising year in Douglas County politics. During the May primary, one candidate walked away with 52 percent of the vote in a seven-way race for Douglas County Commissioner. And, a political newcomer easily defeated incumbent Douglas County Assessor Susan Acree. But the biggest surprise of all came when Oregon's longest serving commissioner, Doug Robertson, announced he was stepping down in the middle of his term, after serving 33 years in that office.
      Now there is a second race for Douglas County Commissioner, as five candidates so far have filed to serve the remainder of Robertson's term. I've been away from the reporting profession long enough that I don't have much insight about any of the candidates. I've only had professional contact with one of the candidates in the past, when I utilized his photography services during one of my campaigns for Douglas County Commissioner. Thus, this blog entry does have any "endorsements" or "recommendations" on which candidate I may vote for. It's simply my outside observation of how this election season is shaping up.
     Keep in mind that my batting average for making political predictions is rather low. I had previously said there would be a run-off between the top two vote-getters in the May primary commissioner's race. I was wrong about that, and I'll just as easily be wrong about anything that's posted on this blog.

No Run-off Election To Ensure A Candidate Receives A Majority Of The Votes

     Interestingly, the November's commissioner race will determine the outcome of the winner, even if the highest-ranking candidate doesn't receive a majority of the votes. There will be no run-off election. So, with five candidates in the race so far, the winner could conceivably win the election by receiving no more than 21 percent of the vote. However, it's likely that the winner will likely pull in at least 30 or 40 percent of the vote.

 

The Candidates And My Predictions (Likely To Be Proven Wrong On Election Day)

1.  Chris Boice. A member of the Douglas County Republican Central Committee, Boice will receive the endorsement and political backing of the local Republican party. Considering that Douglas County has more Republicans than Democrats, and considering that the Douglas County Republican Central Committee helped Tim Freeman to a landslide 52 percent victory in the May primary election, it's likely that Boice will also score a victory, although not as high as Freeman's 52 percent vote.
     I've heard good things about Boice from some of my friends who are very careful in who they give praise for. Boice is a likeable person who has earned a good reputation with different people over the years, from his work as owner of Big O Tires in Roseburg. My one concern, or reservation in voting for Boice, is his past use of social media. Specifically, during the May primary, he engaged is some rather crude and unfriendly remarks against legislative candidate Mark Garcia, during Garcia's bid for office. During the few times that I've commented politically on Facebook, I voice my opinion about an issue, but I never engage in snide remarks that question a person's intelligence. If elected, I sincerely hope that Boice is more of a statesman and doesn't engage in "toxic" dialogue, a term that Doug Robertson recently used when talking about modern-day politics, and the use of social media in politics.

2.  Gary Leif.  A longtime Roseburg photographer, Leif is definitely the candidate with the most "experience" serving on government committees and panels, as well as downtown business organizations. I personally don't believe that "experience" serving in government roles makes the best candidate. But inevitably during an election, some voters will always say we need to vote for the political candidate with the most "experience" working in government.
     Leif is the other strong candidate in the race, and will come in a close second behind Boice...or is the most likely to defeat Boice in the election, depending on the amount of votes gathered by the other candidates (see bullet point number 5). I would like to vote for Leif, but I know nothing about his politics, so I'm not committing to any candidate at this point.

3.  Dale Rogers. I applaud Rogers for running again for commissioner. He is the only candidate from the May primary who has filed, so far, for the November election. I was hoping to see the other candidates...Monte Smith, Mick Fummerton, Mark Vincent, and Glenn Nielsen...to file again for commissioner. After all, they lost to a candidate who was bankrolled by more than $100,000 in special interest PAC money, so their chances of gaining more votes in this election would have been much greater. Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan didn't give up their bid for public office after losing an election, so neither should local candidates....unless they weren't that committed to public service in the first place.
     That's why I admire Dale Rogers for getting right back in the race. Unfortunately, I don't have a reason to vote for Rogers yet, because he has never outlined his position on specific issues. During the May election, his only campaign platform was attacking Freeman for being backed by statewide PAC money. Rogers gave me a reason to vote against Freeman, but not to vote for him. During the next couple of months, Rogers needs to outline specific issues that he champions in order to prompt people to vote for him.

4.  Dennis Hudgins. Of all the candidates in the race, I would like a reason to vote for Hudgins. I know nothing of where he stands on the issues. But I like him because he's a retired man who wants to make Douglas County a better place by running for public office. He's not a career politician or someone who is bankrolled by special interest money. That's why he probably won't score too high in the election, due to a lack of a well-financed campaign. But that's precisely why he should be elected: He is (hopefully) not beholden to any group or owes political favors to any segment of society. And that's what a public servant should be.

5.  Mark Garcia. One might think that I put Garcia at the bottom of the list because he gathered 18 percent of the vote during the May Republican primary, against Dallas Heard who gathered 82 percent of the vote. But the primary reason I believe Garcia will come in last in November's election, is because he's publicly shot himself in the foot on several occasions.
     During the 2012 race against Douglas County Commissioner Doug Robertson, Garcia proposed gathering a group of people to block Interstate-5 in Roseburg. According to Garcia at the time, temporarily shutting down the West Coast's main traffic artery would draw national attention to the plight of the unemployed timber worker. Garcia never followed through with the event. He later told the newspaper that he had accomplished what he had set out to do, by lobbying Oregon's Congressional delegation to sponsor pro-timber legislation. Therefore, the I-5 blockade wasn't necessary. Garcia ruffled more than a few feathers by his claim that he was one of the people responsible for helping get the legislation sponsored by Congress.
     During the 2014 May primary, Garcia committed political suicide (again) by stating that creationism should not be taught as a theory in a high school classroom, but evolution should be taught. Such a position may be the law of the land, but making such a public proclamation in conservative Douglas County is going to cost some votes. Garcia further ruffled some conservative feathers by stating that he is a Christian but also stating that the Bible supports an evolutionary position.
     Despite my belief that Garcia will not pull in many votes, he COULD pull in enough votes to threaten Chris Boice's bid for commissioner. Garcia is a former member of the Douglas County Republican Central Committee (just like Boice), and Garcia has previously strongly publicized his "conservative" Republican beliefs....so if the election is close between Boice and Leif, Garcia could gain enough votes to hand the commissioner's job to Leif.

     For anyone who has read this blog entry through to the end, keep in mind what I stated previously: My predictions will probably be off base. Numerous variables could affect the election's outcome during the next few months. I honestly don't know whom I will vote for, but I will keep that decision to myself. Regardless of whether you agree with me or not in what I've stated here, be sure and vote for the candidate of your choice!